I’m not a pollster, or a political pundit. Not by any stretch. But from as this article points out, it would seem to be very hard for Nagin to beat Mitch Landrieu in the runoff on May 20th. Here are some stats to consider:
- 108,000 people voted in last Saturday’s election
- 41,00 people voted for Nagin
- 66,000 people voted for someone other than Nagin
- 36,000 people voted for someone other than Nagin or Landrieu
- Landrieu got 31,000 votes
Assume that the same number of people vote in the runoff, and that Nagin and Landrieu keep the people who voted for them the first time. So there are 36,000 votes up for grabs. If Landrieu gets 24,000 of those votes he wins. But, the skeptic will say: that would mean he’d have to capture 67% of those voters.
True, but none of those 36,000 voters thought Nagin should be re-elected the first time they voted so why would they change their mind now? Sure, Nagin will capture some of the people who, for whatever reason, prefer him over Landrieu. But something tells me that Nagin is, justifiably, worried about his chances for re-election.
What worries me is that soon we’ll start to see some negative campaigning, and –worse– that it will become racial. We don’t need that. I really like Nagin, but I don’t think he’s the best pick to be the next mayor. I hope that everyone who votes next time around focuses on the question of who will be a good mayor, and who will be fair to everyone. We don’t need divisiveness. We have one chance to get it right, and our margin for error is zero. We don’t have time for racism, favoritism or fear-mongering.
We need a great leader and we need one now. Mitch Landrieu will be a great leader.