I’m not a pollster, or a political pundit. Not by any stretch. But from as this article points out, it would seem to be very hard for Nagin to beat Mitch Landrieu in the runoff on May 20th. Here are some stats to consider:
- 108,000 people voted in last Saturday’s election
- 41,00 people voted for Nagin
- 66,000 people voted for someone other than Nagin
- 36,000 people voted for someone other than Nagin or Landrieu
- Landrieu got 31,000 votes
Assume that the same number of people vote in the runoff, and that Nagin and Landrieu keep the people who voted for them the first time. So there are 36,000 votes up for grabs. If Landrieu gets 24,000 of those votes he wins. But, the skeptic will say: that would mean he’d have to capture 67% of those voters.
True, but none of those 36,000 voters thought Nagin should be re-elected the first time they voted so why would they change their mind now? Sure, Nagin will capture some of the people who, for whatever reason, prefer him over Landrieu. But something tells me that Nagin is, justifiably, worried about his chances for re-election.
What worries me is that soon we’ll start to see some negative campaigning, and –worse– that it will become racial. We don’t need that. I really like Nagin, but I don’t think he’s the best pick to be the next mayor. I hope that everyone who votes next time around focuses on the question of who will be a good mayor, and who will be fair to everyone. We don’t need divisiveness. We have one chance to get it right, and our margin for error is zero. We don’t have time for racism, favoritism or fear-mongering.
We need a great leader and we need one now. Mitch Landrieu will be a great leader.
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I see where someone credits Landrieu with being “10x” smarter than Blanco. While presumably well-intended that comment could also be viewed as the darling of all left-handed compliments as 10×0 still equals 0.
I don’t know much about politics in the Big Easy, but I do know this. Nagin had a lot of political power during and after Katrina. I saw t-shirts on the west coast that said “I agree with Nagin” and “Nagin for President”. However, the man tends to say goofy things. Furthermore, he’s said some blatantly racist things.
I think New Orleans is going to get one chance. If it doesn’t organize, rebuild, and bring business back quickly, it’s never going to fully recover.
I can’t believe you think Nagin is not divisive. City government is in complete gridlock and none of them speak to each other. Now that we have put so many re-treads back on the council, there is no reason to assume anything other than more gridlock if he is re-elected. I don’t think we can afford it. Moon Landrieu was not supposedly corrupt. No corruption in the Landrieu family has reached my ears. If you know any facts, I would like to know them. You must be getting them mixed up with the Jeffersons. As for Mitch Landrieu saying he will support Grandma Blanco, what is he supposed to say when he is still the Lt. Gov. and she is the head of the state party? He is 10X smarter than her and I’m sure he knows it, just as many Republicans know they are smarter than Bush. But who’s the president? Landrieu is also smart enough to wait until it is time to support someone else for governor.
Nagin probably would be the least divisive of the two remaining candidates. Will the voters who voted for Foreman in the primary show up to vote for Landrieu in the run-off? Maybe. But Nagin seems to have the advantage, for now.
I agree that four years with Nagin is better than eight with Landrieu who simply reprises the same old status quo politics. In four years, New Orleans gets another chance at reform. Eight years is too long to wait. In the meantime, Nagin at least is not tied to Blanco and is maverick enough to deviate from the liberal Democratic party line that has sunk city after city in blight and depopulation reminiscent of Katrina.